Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Logan StankovenGoals2
- William CarrierAssists3
- Logan StankovenPoints3
Blackhawks- Anton FrondellGoals2
- Louis CrevierAssists2
- Anton FrondellPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:51Mark Jankowski Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (11), Nicolas Deslauriers (2)7–2
- P38:13Taylor Hall Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (35), Logan Stankoven (21)6–2
- P36:09Anton Frondell Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Louis Crevier (18), Alex Vlasic (19)5–2
- P35:47K'Andre Miller Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: William Carrier (10)5–1
- P214:50Mark Jankowski Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Nikishin (21), William Carrier (9)4–1
- P24:08Logan Stankoven Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Taylor Hall (30), Jackson Blake (30)3–1
- P117:10Logan Stankoven Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P110:48Anton Frondell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (17)1–1
- P10:19Sean Walker Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (42)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:19Sean Walker Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (42)CAR 1 – 0 CHI · CAR 62% → 75% +13CAR 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P110:48Anton Frondell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Louis Crevier (17)CAR 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 25% → 39% +14CHI 25% → 39%+14 pts
- P117:10Logan Stankoven Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 1 CHI · CAR 60% → 76% +15CAR 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P24:08Logan Stankoven Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Taylor Hall (30), Jackson Blake (30)CAR 3 – 1 CHI · CAR 76% → 88% +12CAR 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P214:50Mark Jankowski Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Nikishin (21), William Carrier (9)CAR 4 – 1 CHI · CAR 91% → 97% +6CAR 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML CAR -185 / CHI +154
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 65.4%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -165
- CHI +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +6 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +111 Elo | CAR 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.731st of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.8% | Shot share | 44.8%32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%12th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 6th of 3221–16 | Road vs home | 13–2429th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321568 | Elo rating | 140731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–49 | 49–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–47 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 49–26 |
| Overs–unders | 44–34 | 33–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.