Chicago Blackhawks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:48Ilya Mikheyev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (10), Connor Bedard (41)4–2
- P314:18Kaapo Kakko Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (10), Jaden Schwartz (12)3–2
- P313:08Sacha Boisvert Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Korchinski (2), Landon Slaggert (4)3–1
- P310:48Jaden Schwartz Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (24), Matty Beniers (27)2–1
- P219:37Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (17), Wyatt Kaiser (9)2–0
- P29:15Teuvo Teravainen Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (40), Frank Nazar (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:15Teuvo Teravainen Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (40), Frank Nazar (25)CHI 1 – 0 SEA · CHI 43% → 63% +20CHI 43% → 63%+20 pts
- P219:37Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (17), Wyatt Kaiser (9)CHI 2 – 0 SEA · CHI 68% → 86% +18CHI 68% → 86%+18 pts
- P310:48Jaden Schwartz Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (24), Matty Beniers (27)CHI 2 – 1 SEA · SEA 4% → 20% +16SEA 4% → 20%+16 pts
- P313:08Sacha Boisvert Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Korchinski (2), Landon Slaggert (4)CHI 3 – 1 SEA · CHI 84% → 98% +14CHI 84% → 98%+14 pts
- P314:18Kaapo Kakko Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (10), Jaden Schwartz (12)CHI 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 1% → 14% +12SEA 1% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML CHI +142 / SEA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 64.8%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -152
- CHI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −4 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +106 Elo | SEA 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.122nd of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.5% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%7th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 30th of 3214–25 | Road vs home | 17–2027th of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 32 |
| 31st of 321404 | Elo rating | 146128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–29 | 45–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 47–26 | 40–23 |
| Overs–unders | 33–43 | 32–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–6 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.