Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Nick LardisGoals1
- Teuvo TeravainenAssists1
- Nick LardisPoints1
Oilers- Adam HenriqueGoals1
- Connor MurphyAssists1
- Adam HenriquePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:59Vasily Podkolzin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (9), Connor Murphy (11)1–3
- P35:06Nick Lardis Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (39), Teuvo Teravainen (20)1–2
- P212:13Matt Savoie Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (83), Evan Bouchard (67)0–2
- P25:32Adam Henrique Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jack Roslovic (13), Darnell Nurse (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:32Adam Henrique Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Jack Roslovic (13), Darnell Nurse (15)CHI 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 63% → 79% +16EDM 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P212:13Matt Savoie Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (83), Evan Bouchard (67)CHI 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 80% → 91% +12EDM 80% → 91%+12 pts
- P35:06Nick Lardis Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (39), Teuvo Teravainen (20)CHI 1 – 2 EDM · CHI 5% → 17% +12CHI 5% → 17%+12 pts
- P318:59Vasily Podkolzin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (9), Connor Murphy (11)CHI 1 – 3 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 67%
- ML CHI +190 / EDM -230
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 69.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -202
- CHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.7 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −10 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +147 Elo | EDM 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.328th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.7% | Shot share | 52.3%5th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.3%29th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 30th of 3214–24 | Road vs home | 20–1713th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149532nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321406 | Elo rating | 15327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–28 | 31–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 22–38 |
| Underdog | 47–25 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 33–42 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–7 EDM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.