Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Oilers- Kasperi KapanenGoals1
- Zach HymanAssists1
- Kasperi KapanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:34Connor McDavid Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (35), Zach Hyman (20)0–3
- P112:43Kasperi Kapanen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P15:28Max Jones Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Jake Walman (12)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:28Max Jones Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Jake Walman (12)SEA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 62% → 75% +13EDM 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P112:43Kasperi Kapanen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 75% → 86% +11EDM 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P317:34Connor McDavid Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (35), Zach Hyman (20)SEA 0 – 3 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML SEA +154 / EDM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 64.3%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -165
- SEA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +102 Elo | EDM 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 52.3%5th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.1%30th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 32 |
| 24th of 3215–21 | Road vs home | 19–1714th of 32 |
| 26th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 32 |
| 27th of 321469 | Elo rating | 15297th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–27 | 30–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 21–38 |
| Underdog | 40–21 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 31–41 | 46–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–9 EDM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.