Utah Mammoth at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Logan CooleyGoals2
- Dylan GuentherAssists2
- Logan CooleyPoints3
Kraken- Bobby McMannGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:37Michael Carcone Goal (15) Deflected, assists: none6–2
- P37:27Dylan Guenther Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (14), Kailer Yamamoto (10)5–2
- P34:39JJ Peterka Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (9), Sean Durzi (20)4–2
- P214:56Nick Schmaltz Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (52), Dylan Guenther (28)3–2
- P210:05Logan Cooley Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (21), Mikhail Sergachev (44)2–2
- P116:27Logan Cooley Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (39), Dylan Guenther (27)1–2
- P113:45Bobby McMann Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Chandler Stephenson (30), Kaapo Kakko (23)0–2
- P10:41Jordan Eberle Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (17), Jared McCann (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:45Bobby McMann Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Chandler Stephenson (30), Kaapo Kakko (23)UTA 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 61% → 76% +15SEA 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P116:27Logan Cooley Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (39), Dylan Guenther (27)UTA 1 – 2 SEA · UTA 24% → 39% +15UTA 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P210:05Logan Cooley Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (21), Mikhail Sergachev (44)UTA 2 – 2 SEA · UTA 34% → 54% +20UTA 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P214:56Nick Schmaltz Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (52), Dylan Guenther (28)UTA 3 – 2 SEA · UTA 54% → 75% +21UTA 54% → 75%+21 pts
- P34:39JJ Peterka Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (9), Sean Durzi (20)UTA 4 – 2 SEA · UTA 79% → 94% +15UTA 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 56%
- ML UTA -142 / SEA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- UTA: Elo 52.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.4 – 3.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +16 Elo | UTA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 46.5%29th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%4th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 13th of 3219–19 | Road vs home | 17–1925th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 146628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–41 | 45–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–32 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36 | 31–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–2 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.
