Chicago Blackhawks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals1
- Frank NazarAssists1
- Frank NazarPoints2
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- William EklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:09Frank Nazar Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (21), Anton Frondell (5)2–3
- P33:28Will Smith Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (24), Macklin Celebrini (66)1–3
- P214:55Kiefer Sherwood Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (34), Alexander Wennberg (35)1–2
- P26:57William Eklund Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P19:01Ryan Donato Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (26), Connor Bedard (42)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:01Ryan Donato Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (26), Connor Bedard (42)CHI 1 – 0 SJ · CHI 41% → 57% +16CHI 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P26:57William Eklund Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 38% → 57% +19SJ 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P214:55Kiefer Sherwood Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (34), Alexander Wennberg (35)CHI 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 56% → 76% +20SJ 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P33:28Will Smith Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (24), Macklin Celebrini (66)CHI 1 – 3 SJ · SJ 79% → 94% +14SJ 79% → 94%+14 pts
- P36:09Frank Nazar Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (21), Anton Frondell (5)CHI 2 – 3 SJ · CHI 5% → 19% +14CHI 5% → 19%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 59%
- ML CHI +136 / SJ -162
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- SJ: Elo 59.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SJ -146
- CHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.5 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +10 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SJ +63 Elo | SJ 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.6% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 30th of 3215–25 | Road vs home | 20–1816th of 32 |
| 14th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 31st of 321409 | Elo rating | 143430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 48–29 | 47–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 48–26 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 33–44 | 37–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 5–2 SJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.