Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Tyson JostAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Sharks- Nick LeddyGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Nick LeddyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:45Tyson Jost Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (44), Adam Wilsby (14)6–3
- P317:26Erik Haula Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (7)5–3
- P38:28Ryan O'Reilly Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (41), Tyson Jost (6)4–3
- P31:06Alexander Wennberg Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Dmitry Orlov (31)3–3
- P219:41Macklin Celebrini Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (23), Nick Leddy (6)3–2
- P215:49Nick Leddy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (33)3–1
- P116:55Steven Stamkos Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (34), Roman Josi (39)3–0
- P19:54Filip Forsberg Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Matthew Wood (13), Adam Wilsby (13)2–0
- P18:38Filip Forsberg Goal (36) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (19), Roman Josi (38)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:38Filip Forsberg Goal (36) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (19), Roman Josi (38)NSH 1 – 0 SJ · NSH 48% → 63% +15NSH 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P19:54Filip Forsberg Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Matthew Wood (13), Adam Wilsby (13)NSH 2 – 0 SJ · NSH 64% → 77% +14NSH 64% → 77%+14 pts
- P219:41Macklin Celebrini Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Collin Graf (23), Nick Leddy (6)NSH 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 11% → 28% +17SJ 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P31:06Alexander Wennberg Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Dmitry Orlov (31)NSH 3 – 3 SJ · SJ 27% → 51% +24SJ 27% → 51%+24 pts
- P38:28Ryan O'Reilly Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (41), Tyson Jost (6)NSH 4 – 3 SJ · NSH 49% → 79% +30NSH 49% → 79%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 52%
- ML NSH +100 / SJ -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- SJ: Elo 48.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SJ -109
- NSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.2 – 3.3 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −13 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +11 Elo | NSH 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 46.8%28th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3215–21 | Road vs home | 20–1714th of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 27th of 321471 | Elo rating | 143830th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–34 | 47–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 34–19 | 44–22 |
| Overs–unders | 35–40 | 36–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 7–0 SJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.