Carolina Hurricanes at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists2
- Jordan StaalPoints2
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Mikhail SergachevAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:37Sean Walker Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (17), Jordan Staal (16)4–1
- P315:31Sebastian Aho Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (37), Jaccob Slavin (7)3–1
- P32:42Dylan Guenther Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (58), Mikhail Sergachev (48)2–1
- P113:23Jordan Staal Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (44), Jordan Martinook (16)2–0
- P14:25Andrei Svechnikov Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (43), Shayne Gostisbehere (36)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:25Andrei Svechnikov Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (43), Shayne Gostisbehere (36)CAR 1 – 0 UTA · CAR 47% → 62% +15CAR 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P113:23Jordan Staal Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (44), Jordan Martinook (16)CAR 2 – 0 UTA · CAR 63% → 78% +14CAR 63% → 78%+14 pts
- P32:42Dylan Guenther Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (58), Mikhail Sergachev (48)CAR 2 – 1 UTA · UTA 9% → 26% +17UTA 9% → 26%+17 pts
- P315:31Sebastian Aho Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (37), Jaccob Slavin (7)CAR 3 – 1 UTA · CAR 91% → >99% +9CAR 91% → >99%+9 pts
- P319:37Sean Walker Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (17), Jordan Staal (16)CAR 4 – 1 UTA · CAR 100% → 100% +0CAR 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 53%
- ML CAR +105 / UTA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- UTA: Elo 50.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- UTA -114
- CAR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.2 – 3.3 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +3 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA 0 Elo | UTA 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.6% | Shot share | 51.4%8th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3222–16 | Road vs home | 21–1711th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321571 | Elo rating | 152610th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–49 | 36–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–47 | 19–33 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 45–34 | 41–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–1 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.
