Utah Mammoth at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Clayton KellerGoals3
- Logan CooleyAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints4
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals2
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Linus KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:07Clayton Keller Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (40), Ian Cole (19)7–4
- P311:45Liam O'Brien Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brandon Tanev (3), Nate Schmidt (16)6–4
- P34:40Marco Rossi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (38), Brock Boeser (23)5–4
- P31:32Lawson Crouse Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (53)5–3
- P30:20Jake DeBrusk Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (37)4–3
- P211:55Dylan Guenther Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (30), Logan Cooley (16)4–2
- P27:04Clayton Keller Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Guenther (29), Mikhail Sergachev (45)3–2
- P22:05Linus Karlsson Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Victor Mancini (2), Teddy Blueger (7)2–2
- P118:30Clayton Keller Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (19), Nick DeSimone (6)2–1
- P113:34Kailer Yamamoto Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Logan Cooley (15)1–1
- P12:28Linus Karlsson Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (5), Liam Ohgren (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:28Linus Karlsson Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (5), Liam Ohgren (9)UTA 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 33% → 48% +14VAN 33% → 48%+14 pts
- P113:34Kailer Yamamoto Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Logan Cooley (15)UTA 1 – 1 VAN · UTA 49% → 65% +16UTA 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P118:30Clayton Keller Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Lawson Crouse (19), Nick DeSimone (6)UTA 2 – 1 VAN · UTA 64% → 79% +15UTA 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P22:05Linus Karlsson Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Victor Mancini (2), Teddy Blueger (7)UTA 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 21% → 36% +15VAN 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P27:04Clayton Keller Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Guenther (29), Mikhail Sergachev (45)UTA 3 – 2 VAN · UTA 63% → 79% +17UTA 63% → 79%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 67%
- ML UTA -230 / VAN +190
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 63.1%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- UTA -202
- VAN +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.7 – 2.8 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −8 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +93 Elo | UTA 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.832nd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −1.232nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 46.8%27th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.1%30th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–19 | Road vs home | 8–3032nd of 32 |
| 25th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 32 |
| 10th of 321517 | Elo rating | 140132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–41 | 34–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 17–32 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36 | 43–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 5–0 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.
