Nashville Predators at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Erik HaulaGoals1
- Zachary L'HeureuxAssists1
- Erik HaulaPoints1
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists3
- Clayton KellerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P310:22Erik Haula Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (1), Brady Skjei (23)1–4
- P36:05Dylan Guenther Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (57), Nick Schmaltz (41)0–4
- P33:03Lawson Crouse Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (56), Mikhail Sergachev (47)0–3
- P25:35Nick Schmaltz Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (55), Logan Cooley (18)0–2
- P114:26Kailer Yamamoto Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (32), Logan Cooley (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:26Kailer Yamamoto Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (32), Logan Cooley (17)NSH 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 60% → 75% +15UTA 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P25:35Nick Schmaltz Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (55), Logan Cooley (18)NSH 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 76% → 88% +12UTA 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P33:03Lawson Crouse Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (56), Mikhail Sergachev (47)NSH 0 – 3 UTA · UTA 94% → 99% +5UTA 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P36:05Dylan Guenther Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (57), Nick Schmaltz (41)NSH 0 – 4 UTA · UTA >99% → >99% +1UTA >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P310:22Erik Haula Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (1), Brady Skjei (23)NSH 1 – 4 UTA · NSH <1% → <1% +0NSH <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 62%
- ML NSH +150 / UTA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 61.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- UTA -161
- NSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +79 Elo | UTA 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 61.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.95th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 51.5%9th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3217–22 | Road vs home | 20–1715th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149629th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321480 | Elo rating | 152210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–34 | 35–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 18–33 |
| Underdog | 37–19 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 41–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–3 UTA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.
