Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints2
Kings- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Jared WrightAssists1
- Joel ArmiaPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P34:18Roman Josi Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (35), Erik Haula (23)2–2
- P213:57Scott Laughton Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Wright (4)1–2
- P24:29Steven Stamkos Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (45), Roman Josi (40)1–1
- P15:36Joel Armia Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:36Joel Armia Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 69% +14LA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P24:29Steven Stamkos Goal (39) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (45), Roman Josi (40)NSH 1 – 1 LA · NSH 28% → 46% +18NSH 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P213:57Scott Laughton Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Wright (4)NSH 1 – 2 LA · LA 53% → 74% +20LA 53% → 74%+20 pts
- P34:18Roman Josi Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (35), Erik Haula (23)NSH 2 – 2 LA · NSH 22% → 47% +26NSH 22% → 47%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 55%
- ML NSH +114 / LA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LA: Elo 54.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LA -123
- NSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 2.9 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +33 Elo | LA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 50.8%12th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 21st of 3216–21 | Road vs home | 12–2631st of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 26th of 321475 | Elo rating | 147725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–34 | 28–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 9–37 |
| Underdog | 35–19 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 36–40 | 36–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 5–3 LA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.