Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints2
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals2
- Sean DurziAssists2
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Clayton Keller Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (46), Dylan Guenther (31)5–6
- P312:56Alexander Kerfoot Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sean Durzi (22), Michael Carcone (15)5–5
- P32:09Colton Dach Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (3), Jason Dickinson (10)5–4
- P219:24Nick Schmaltz Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (31), Alexander Kerfoot (6)4–4
- P216:06Vasily Podkolzin Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (16), Connor McDavid (84)4–3
- P215:19Logan Cooley Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (30), Sean Durzi (21)3–3
- P210:28Nick Schmaltz Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (54), Lawson Crouse (20)3–2
- P114:43Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (9)3–1
- P18:56Connor McDavid Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (68), Tristan Jarry (1)2–1
- P12:04Curtis Lazar Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Adam Henrique (12), Mattias Ekholm (34)1–1
- P11:53JJ Peterka Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Ian Cole (20), Michael Carcone (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:06Vasily Podkolzin Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (16), Connor McDavid (84)EDM 4 – 3 UTA · EDM 47% → 69% +22EDM 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P219:24Nick Schmaltz Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: John Marino (31), Alexander Kerfoot (6)EDM 4 – 4 UTA · UTA 29% → 53% +24UTA 29% → 53%+24 pts
- P32:09Colton Dach Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (3), Jason Dickinson (10)EDM 5 – 4 UTA · EDM 47% → 73% +25EDM 47% → 73%+25 pts
- P312:56Alexander Kerfoot Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sean Durzi (22), Michael Carcone (15)EDM 5 – 5 UTA · UTA 15% → 52% +36UTA 15% → 52%+36 pts
- OT0:33Clayton Keller Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (46), Dylan Guenther (31)EDM 5 – 6 UTA · UTA 51% → 92% +40UTA 51% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 55%
- ML EDM +114 / UTA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 55.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -123
- EDM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.4 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +4 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +40 Elo | UTA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.94th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 51.4%8th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 18th of 3218–20 | Road vs home | 19–1717th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149631st of 32 |
| 9th of 321527 | Elo rating | 152010th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–45 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–39 | 18–32 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 46–31 | 40–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 5–0 UTA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.