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Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports

Away

Golden Knights

35-26-16

5–1

at

Home

Oilers

39-29-9

VGK 50%EDM 50%

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Rogers Place · ESPN+, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored VGK favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights
Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P316:13Rasmus Andersson Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (36), Noah Hanifin (22)5–1
  • P34:04Mark Stone Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Barbashev (35), Jack Eichel (57)4–1
  • P219:26Evan Bouchard Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (14), Matt Savoie (18)3–1
  • P28:05Jeremy Lauzon Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (56), Brett Howden (10)3–0
  • P25:44Colton Sissons Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (54), Jeremy Lauzon (12)2–0
  • P111:43Brett Howden Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (55)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P111:43Brett Howden Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (55)VGK 1 – 0 EDM · VGK 50% → 66% +16
  2. P25:44Colton Sissons Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (54), Jeremy Lauzon (12)VGK 2 – 0 EDM · VGK 69% → 83% +15
  3. P28:05Jeremy Lauzon Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (56), Brett Howden (10)VGK 3 – 0 EDM · VGK 84% → 93% +9
  4. P219:26Evan Bouchard Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (14), Matt Savoie (18)VGK 3 – 1 EDM · EDM 3% → 11% +8
  5. P34:04Mark Stone Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Ivan Barbashev (35), Jack Eichel (57)VGK 4 – 1 EDM · VGK 92% → 98% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 50%

Toss-upMiss
VGK 50%EDM 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 50%
ML VGK -110 / EDM -110
Pre-line forecast
EDM 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 62%
Ratings vs. market
+12.5 pts
EDM: Elo 62.5%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
EDM -100
VGK -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VGK 3.3 – 3.3 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKEDMWhy
Team rating14971534Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−10+7VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +88 EloEDM 62.5%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 56.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 57.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatEDM
15th of 323.2Goals scored3.56th of 32
19th of 323.1Goals allowed3.326th of 32
14th of 320.0Margin+0.213th of 32
4th of 3254.2%Shot share52.5%5th of 32
31st of 3288.0%Save percentage88.3%29th of 32
20th of 324–6Last 107–32nd of 32
20th of 3216–21Road vs home21–1711th of 32
28th of 321496Opponent Elo149432nd of 32
17th of 321497Elo rating15347th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKEDM
Puck line30–4632–44
Last 104–67–3
Favorite17–4423–38
Underdog13–29–6
Overs–unders39–3746–30
Overs–unders, last 103–74–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 4–11 EDM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.