Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals2
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals3
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints5
Scoring summary
- P318:31Mitch Marner Goal (23) Wrap-around, assists: Mark Stone (43), Ivan Barbashev (34)3–6
- P314:59Ivan Barbashev Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (53)3–5
- P312:20Brett Howden Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (28), Ivan Barbashev (33)3–4
- P216:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (52)3–3
- P212:11Blake Coleman Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P26:42Mitch Marner Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (27), Jack Eichel (54)2–2
- P24:38Blake Coleman Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (25), Joel Farabee (17)2–1
- P21:47Mitch Marner Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Shea Theodore (27), Brayden McNabb (6)1–1
- P17:41Morgan Frost Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:38Blake Coleman Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (25), Joel Farabee (17)CGY 2 – 1 VGK · CGY 36% → 55% +19CGY 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P26:42Mitch Marner Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (27), Jack Eichel (54)CGY 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 44% → 63% +19VGK 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P212:11Blake Coleman Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 3 – 2 VGK · CGY 38% → 59% +21CGY 38% → 59%+21 pts
- P216:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (52)CGY 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 38% → 61% +23VGK 38% → 61%+23 pts
- P312:20Brett Howden Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (28), Ivan Barbashev (33)CGY 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 56% → 88% +32VGK 56% → 88%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 68%
- ML CGY +195 / VGK -238
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 59.3%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- VGK -208
- CGY +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.7 – 3.8 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −11 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +65 Elo | VGK 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 54.1%4th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3210–26 | Road vs home | 17–2127th of 32 |
| 28th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 32 |
| 29th of 321456 | Elo rating | 149418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–33 | 29–46 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 16–44 |
| Underdog | 32–25 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–6 VGK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.