Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Erik HaulaGoals1
- Joakim KemellAssists2
- Erik HaulaPoints2
DucksScoring summary
- P315:07Fedor Svechkov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (8), Ryan Ufko (5)5–0
- P39:51Zachary L'Heureux Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Joakim Kemell (2), Erik Haula (24)4–0
- P219:00Brady Skjei Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (8), Ryan O'Reilly (47)3–0
- P211:26Filip Forsberg Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (41), Ryan O'Reilly (46)2–0
- P27:07Erik Haula Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Joakim Kemell (1), Adam Wilsby (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:07Erik Haula Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Joakim Kemell (1), Adam Wilsby (15)NSH 1 – 0 ANA · NSH 44% → 63% +19NSH 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P211:26Filip Forsberg Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (41), Ryan O'Reilly (46)NSH 2 – 0 ANA · NSH 65% → 82% +17NSH 65% → 82%+17 pts
- P219:00Brady Skjei Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (8), Ryan O'Reilly (47)NSH 3 – 0 ANA · NSH 87% → 96% +9NSH 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P39:51Zachary L'Heureux Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Joakim Kemell (2), Erik Haula (24)NSH 4 – 0 ANA · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P315:07Fedor Svechkov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (8), Ryan Ufko (5)NSH 5 – 0 ANA · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 58%
- ML NSH +130 / ANA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ANA: Elo 59.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -140
- NSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +64 Elo | ANA 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.7% | Shot share | 51.5%7th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.5%26th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3216–22 | Road vs home | 23–157th of 32 |
| 20th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 147227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–34 | 35–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 5–23 |
| Underdog | 36–19 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders | 36–41 | 46–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–6 ANA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 7.