St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals2
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Ducks- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Ryan PoehlingPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:22Dylan Holloway Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (35), Philip Broberg (25)6–2
- P216:50Colton Parayko Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dalibor Dvorsky (8), Jordan Kyrou (24)5–2
- P23:08Pius Suter Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (11), Jake Neighbours (18)4–2
- P118:44Jonatan Berggren Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Pius Suter (14)3–2
- P116:01Jeffrey Viel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (23), Drew Helleson (13)2–2
- P111:18Dylan Holloway Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (17), Robert Thomas (34)2–1
- P15:24Robert Thomas Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (24), Colton Parayko (14)1–1
- P11:51Ryan Poehling Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (21), Olen Zellweger (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:24Robert Thomas Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (24), Colton Parayko (14)STL 1 – 1 ANA · STL 30% → 44% +14STL 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P111:18Dylan Holloway Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (17), Robert Thomas (34)STL 2 – 1 ANA · STL 44% → 60% +16STL 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P116:01Jeffrey Viel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (23), Drew Helleson (13)STL 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 39% → 55% +17ANA 39% → 55%+17 pts
- P118:44Jonatan Berggren Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Pius Suter (14)STL 3 – 2 ANA · STL 45% → 62% +17STL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P23:08Pius Suter Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (11), Jake Neighbours (18)STL 4 – 2 ANA · STL 63% → 79% +16STL 63% → 79%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 56%
- ML STL +120 / ANA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- ANA: Elo 53.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +4 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +27 Elo | ANA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 88.7%26th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 31st of 3213–24 | Road vs home | 23–134th of 32 |
| 31st of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 21st of 321484 | Elo rating | 148124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–33 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–22 | 5–21 |
| Underdog | 36–11 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders | 34–40 | 44–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–1 ANA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.