Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals2
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints2
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:49Morgan Frost Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (23)5–3
- P39:51Mason McTavish Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (17)4–3
- P37:49Leo Carlsson Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P218:44Morgan Frost Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (10), Blake Coleman (14)4–1
- P27:49Matvei Gridin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (18), Hunter Brzustewicz (5)3–1
- P21:20Ryan Strome Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (2), Victor Olofsson (18)2–1
- P113:24Joel Farabee Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Matvei Gridin (11), Kevin Bahl (14)1–1
- P110:11Beckett Sennecke Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Jackson LaCombe (46), Jacob Trouba (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:11Beckett Sennecke Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Jackson LaCombe (46), Jacob Trouba (24)CGY 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 58% → 72% +15ANA 58% → 72%+15 pts
- P113:24Joel Farabee Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Matvei Gridin (11), Kevin Bahl (14)CGY 1 – 1 ANA · CGY 27% → 43% +15CGY 27% → 43%+15 pts
- P21:20Ryan Strome Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (2), Victor Olofsson (18)CGY 2 – 1 ANA · CGY 43% → 61% +18CGY 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P27:49Matvei Gridin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (18), Hunter Brzustewicz (5)CGY 3 – 1 ANA · CGY 63% → 80% +17CGY 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P39:51Mason McTavish Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (17)CGY 4 – 3 ANA · ANA 5% → 21% +17ANA 5% → 21%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 58%
- ML CGY +130 / ANA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- ANA: Elo 53.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ANA -140
- CGY +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.5 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −7 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +23 Elo | ANA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3210–27 | Road vs home | 23–146th of 32 |
| 30th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 29th of 321452 | Elo rating | 147626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–34 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 5–22 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 30–19 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–5 ANA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.