Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals2
- Noah CatesAssists2
- Sean CouturierPoints3
Jets- Haydn FleuryGoals1
- Cole KoepkeAssists1
- Haydn FleuryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:32Nick Seeler Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Cates (28), Matvei Michkov (29)7–1
- P36:23Sean Couturier Goal (12) Backhand, assists: none6–1
- P219:28Noah Cates Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (33), Rasmus Ristolainen (13)5–1
- P211:41Travis Sanheim Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (12), Sean Couturier (24)4–1
- P18:49Sean Couturier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P18:24Matvei Michkov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (27), Denver Barkey (11)2–1
- P16:57Haydn Fleury Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (9), Jonathan Toews (18)1–1
- P11:17Porter Martone Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (41)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:17Porter Martone Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (41)PHI 1 – 0 WPG · PHI 47% → 61% +15PHI 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P16:57Haydn Fleury Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (9), Jonathan Toews (18)PHI 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 38% → 53% +15WPG 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P18:24Matvei Michkov Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (27), Denver Barkey (11)PHI 2 – 1 WPG · PHI 47% → 62% +15PHI 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P18:49Sean Couturier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: nonePHI 3 – 1 WPG · PHI 63% → 76% +14PHI 63% → 76%+14 pts
- P211:41Travis Sanheim Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (12), Sean Couturier (24)PHI 4 – 1 WPG · PHI 84% → 94% +10PHI 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 53%
- ML PHI +105 / WPG -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- WPG: Elo 57.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.7 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +54 Elo | WPG 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3222–18 | Road vs home | 19–2022nd of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 21st of 321487 | Elo rating | 151013th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 50–29 | 37–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 12–32 |
| Underdog | 40–16 | 25–9 |
| Overs–unders | 41–38 | 40–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.