Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Josh MorrisseyGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Dylan HollowayAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:00Colton Parayko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (25), Dylan Holloway (25)3–2
- P215:51Jonathan Toews Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (20), Gabriel Vilardi (36)3–1
- P214:11Josh Morrissey Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (6), Mark Scheifele (65)2–1
- P19:24Alex Iafallo Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (64), Haydn Fleury (2)1–1
- P14:56Dylan Holloway Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (36), Philip Broberg (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:56Dylan Holloway Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (36), Philip Broberg (26)WPG 0 – 1 STL · STL 51% → 66% +15STL 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P19:24Alex Iafallo Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (64), Haydn Fleury (2)WPG 1 – 1 STL · WPG 34% → 49% +15WPG 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P214:11Josh Morrissey Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (6), Mark Scheifele (65)WPG 2 – 1 STL · WPG 49% → 70% +21WPG 49% → 70%+21 pts
- P215:51Jonathan Toews Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (20), Gabriel Vilardi (36)WPG 3 – 1 STL · WPG 71% → 87% +16WPG 71% → 87%+16 pts
- P313:00Colton Parayko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (25), Dylan Holloway (25)WPG 3 – 2 STL · STL 2% → 14% +13STL 2% → 14%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 927 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML WPG -105 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- STL: Elo 51.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.7 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −5 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +10 Elo | STL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.8% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 25th of 3215–23 | Road vs home | 18–2024th of 32 |
| 21st of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 13th of 321508 | Elo rating | 149019th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–41 | 43–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–32 | 5–22 |
| Underdog | 24–9 | 38–12 |
| Overs–unders | 40–37 | 35–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 12–5 STL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.
- Mar 15STL 2 @ WPG 3Picked STL 50%Miss
- Jan 20STL 1 @ WPG 3Picked WPG 53%Hit
- Dec 17WPG 0 @ STL 1Picked WPG 58%Miss
- May 4STL 3 @ WPG 4PlayoffsPicked WPG 61%Hit
- May 2WPG 2 @ STL 5PlayoffsPicked STL 51%Hit
- Apr 30STL 3 @ WPG 5PlayoffsPicked WPG 61%Hit
- Apr 27WPG 1 @ STL 5PlayoffsPicked WPG 54%Miss
- Apr 24WPG 2 @ STL 7PlayoffsPicked WPG 51%Miss