Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Jimmy SnuggerudAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:38Robert Thomas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Theo Lindstein (2), Jimmy Snuggerud (26)3–1
- P21:40Valeri Nichushkin Goal (17) Between Legs, assists: Brock Nelson (31)3–0
- P119:32Martin Necas Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (72), Artturi Lehkonen (27)2–0
- P116:11Valeri Nichushkin Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (21), Sam Malinski (31)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:11Valeri Nichushkin Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (21), Sam Malinski (31)COL 1 – 0 STL · COL 57% → 73% +16COL 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P119:32Martin Necas Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (72), Artturi Lehkonen (27)COL 2 – 0 STL · COL 73% → 86% +12COL 73% → 86%+12 pts
- P21:40Valeri Nichushkin Goal (17) Between Legs, assists: Brock Nelson (31)COL 3 – 0 STL · COL 86% → 94% +8COL 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P215:38Robert Thomas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Theo Lindstein (2), Jimmy Snuggerud (26)COL 3 – 1 STL · STL 3% → 10% +7STL 3% → 10%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML COL -155 / STL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- COL: Elo 57.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +8 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +54 Elo | COL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.3% | Shot share | 48.0%25th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%22nd of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 1st of 3226–12 | Road vs home | 18–1924th of 32 |
| 27th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149630th of 32 |
| 1st of 321581 | Elo rating | 149318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–38 | 43–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 37–38 | 5–22 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 38–11 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41 | 35–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–5 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.