St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals3
- Jimmy SnuggerudAssists3
- Robert ThomasPoints3
Avalanche- Brent BurnsGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:10Robert Thomas Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (25), Dylan Holloway (24)3–2
- P24:09Robert Thomas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (23), Jimmy Snuggerud (24)2–2
- P23:40Brent Burns Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (16), Brock Nelson (30)1–2
- P115:10Parker Kelly Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (21), Logan O'Connor (2)1–1
- P112:01Robert Thomas Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (23), Dylan Holloway (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:01Robert Thomas Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (23), Dylan Holloway (22)STL 1 – 0 COL · STL 38% → 54% +16STL 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P115:10Parker Kelly Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (21), Logan O'Connor (2)STL 1 – 1 COL · COL 45% → 62% +17COL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P23:40Brent Burns Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (16), Brock Nelson (30)STL 1 – 2 COL · COL 61% → 77% +16COL 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P24:09Robert Thomas Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (23), Jimmy Snuggerud (24)STL 2 – 2 COL · STL 23% → 39% +16STL 23% → 39%+16 pts
- P317:10Robert Thomas Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (25), Dylan Holloway (24)STL 3 – 2 COL · STL 47% → 95% +48STL 47% → 95%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML STL +164 / COL -198
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- COL: Elo 65.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- COL -175
- STL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −8 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +113 Elo | COL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.61st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 56.4%2nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 30th of 3214–24 | Road vs home | 24–133rd of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 32 |
| 20th of 321490 | Elo rating | 15841st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–33 | 38–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–22 | 37–37 |
| Underdog | 37–11 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 35–40 | 35–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–5 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.