Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints2
StarsScoring summary
- P319:02Nathan MacKinnon Goal (51) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (58), Josh Manson (26)2–0
- P310:39Martin Necas Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (26), Devon Toews (20)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P310:39Martin Necas Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (26), Devon Toews (20)COL 1 – 0 DAL · COL 51% → 83% +32COL 51% → 83%+32 pts
- P319:02Nathan MacKinnon Goal (51) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (58), Josh Manson (26)COL 2 – 0 DAL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML COL -120 / DAL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- COL: Elo 49.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- DAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +4 Elo | DAL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.82nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.4% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 1st of 3225–12 | Road vs home | 23–145th of 32 |
| 29th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149630th of 32 |
| 1st of 321581 | Elo rating | 15544th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–37 | 31–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–37 | 17–43 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 14–2 |
| Overs–unders | 35–39 | 37–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 11–12 DAL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.
- Mar 18DAL 2 @ COL 1Picked COL 56%Miss
- Mar 6COL 5 @ DAL 4Picked COL 53%Hit
- Oct 11DAL 5 @ COL 4Picked COL 57%Miss
- May 3COL 2 @ DAL 4PlayoffsPicked COL 60%Miss
- May 1DAL 4 @ COL 7PlayoffsPicked COL 64%Hit
- Apr 28COL 2 @ DAL 6PlayoffsPicked COL 56%Miss
- Apr 26DAL 0 @ COL 4PlayoffsPicked COL 64%Hit
- Apr 23DAL 2 @ COL 1PlayoffsPicked COL 63%Miss