Seattle Kraken at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:56Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P315:19Kyle Connor Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (63), Alex Iafallo (16)2–5
- P35:59Brad Lambert Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (16), Neal Pionk (9)2–4
- P32:28Jared McCann Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (24)2–3
- P212:09Kyle Connor Goal (37) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (62), Josh Morrissey (41)1–3
- P29:55Gabriel Vilardi Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (17), Mark Scheifele (61)1–2
- P112:39Jonathan Toews Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (35), Josh Morrissey (40)1–1
- P19:17Jordan Eberle Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Matty Beniers (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:17Jordan Eberle Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Matty Beniers (28)SEA 1 – 0 WPG · SEA 41% → 57% +16SEA 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P112:39Jonathan Toews Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (35), Josh Morrissey (40)SEA 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 43% → 59% +16WPG 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P29:55Gabriel Vilardi Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (17), Mark Scheifele (61)SEA 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 57% → 76% +19WPG 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P32:28Jared McCann Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (24)SEA 2 – 3 WPG · SEA 7% → 21% +14SEA 7% → 21%+14 pts
- P35:59Brad Lambert Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (16), Neal Pionk (9)SEA 2 – 4 WPG · WPG 81% → 95% +14WPG 81% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 60%
- ML SEA +140 / WPG -166
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- WPG: Elo 62.5%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -150
- SEA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +89 Elo | WPG 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 48.7%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%16th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 32 |
| 24th of 3215–22 | Road vs home | 18–2024th of 32 |
| 28th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 29th of 321456 | Elo rating | 150416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–30 | 35–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 11–32 |
| Underdog | 40–23 | 24–9 |
| Overs–unders | 32–43 | 39–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–5 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.