Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Alexandre TexierAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints1
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists2
- Matvei MichkovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:00Alex Bump Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Porter Martone (6)2–4
- P219:49Jake Evans Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Arber Xhekaj (3), Joseph Veleno (3)2–3
- P213:52Matvei Michkov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P26:50Brendan Gallagher Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (9), Alexandre Texier (13)1–2
- P114:42Oliver Bonk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (31), Hunter McDonald (1)0–2
- P18:08Porter Martone Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Michkov (30), Oliver Bonk (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:42Oliver Bonk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (31), Hunter McDonald (1)MTL 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 46% → 63% +17PHI 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P26:50Brendan Gallagher Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (9), Alexandre Texier (13)MTL 1 – 2 PHI · MTL 29% → 48% +19MTL 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P213:52Matvei Michkov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 57% → 76% +20PHI 57% → 76%+20 pts
- P219:49Jake Evans Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Arber Xhekaj (3), Joseph Veleno (3)MTL 2 – 3 PHI · MTL 18% → 39% +21MTL 18% → 39%+21 pts
- P312:00Alex Bump Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Porter Martone (6)MTL 2 – 4 PHI · PHI 78% → 96% +18PHI 78% → 96%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 72%
- ML MTL -305 / PHI +245
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.0 pts
- MTL: Elo 57.2%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -260
- PHI +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.9 – 2.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −14 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +50 Elo | MTL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3224–16 | Road vs home | 19–2122nd of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 7th of 321536 | Elo rating | 149718th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–37 | 51–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–33 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 34–4 | 41–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–35 | 42–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.