Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Islanders- Casey CizikasGoals1
- Scott MayfieldAssists1
- Casey CizikasPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:45Zachary Bolduc Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (12), Kirby Dach (7)4–1
- P38:45Casey Cizikas Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (13), Ryan Pulock (24)3–1
- P216:51Alex Newhook Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (18), David Reinbacher (1)3–0
- P216:24Ivan Demidov Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (72), Lane Hutson (66)2–0
- P215:56Nick Suzuki Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (43), Lane Hutson (65)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:56Nick Suzuki Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (43), Lane Hutson (65)MTL 1 – 0 NYI · MTL 48% → 70% +22MTL 48% → 70%+22 pts
- P216:24Ivan Demidov Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (72), Lane Hutson (66)MTL 2 – 0 NYI · MTL 70% → 87% +16MTL 70% → 87%+16 pts
- P216:51Alex Newhook Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (18), David Reinbacher (1)MTL 3 – 0 NYI · MTL 87% → 96% +9MTL 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P38:45Casey Cizikas Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (13), Ryan Pulock (24)MTL 3 – 1 NYI · NYI <1% → 5% +4NYI <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P319:45Zachary Bolduc Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (12), Kirby Dach (7)MTL 4 – 1 NYI · MTL 100% → 100% +0MTL 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 53%
- ML MTL +105 / NYI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 46.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -114
- MTL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYI and MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +22 Elo | MTL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3223–16 | Road vs home | 22–1710th of 32 |
| 6th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 8th of 321532 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–37 | 42–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–33 | 6–25 |
| Underdog | 33–4 | 36–13 |
| Overs–unders | 46–34 | 39–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–4 NYI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.