Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints2
IslandersScoring summary
- P317:29Michael Amadio Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (22), Ridly Greig (22)3–0
- P312:36Jake Sanderson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (31), Tim Stützle (49)2–0
- P113:06Ridly Greig Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Michael Amadio (20)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:06Ridly Greig Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Michael Amadio (20)OTT 1 – 0 NYI · OTT 54% → 69% +16OTT 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P312:36Jake Sanderson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (31), Tim Stützle (49)OTT 2 – 0 NYI · OTT 86% → 98% +12OTT 86% → 98%+12 pts
- P317:29Michael Amadio Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (22), Ridly Greig (22)OTT 3 – 0 NYI · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 54%
- ML OTT -130 / NYI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- OTT: Elo 52.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.4 – 3.1 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +20 Elo | OTT 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.3% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%5th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3220–19 | Road vs home | 22–1610th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 8th of 321535 | Elo rating | 148621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–42 | 42–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–36 | 6–25 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 36–12 |
| Overs–unders | 42–37 | 39–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–5 NYI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.