Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyGoals1
- Luke HaymesAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Islanders- Calum RitchieGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists2
- Calum RitchiePoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:04Morgan Rielly Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (25), Luke Haymes (1)3–5
- P310:20Calum Ritchie Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none2–5
- P216:44Emil Heineman Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (52), Tony DeAngelo (30)2–4
- P29:39Matthew Schaefer Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (29), Ondrej Palat (10)2–3
- P21:57Easton Cowan Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (39), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (31)2–2
- P15:11Steven Lorentz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P14:55Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Max Shabanov (13), Adam Pelech (12)0–2
- P12:08Brayden Schenn Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (17), Bo Horvat (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:08Brayden Schenn Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (17), Bo Horvat (26)TOR 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 72% → 83% +11NYI 72% → 83%+11 pts
- P15:11Steven Lorentz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 1 – 2 NYI · TOR 9% → 17% +8TOR 9% → 17%+8 pts
- P21:57Easton Cowan Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (39), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (31)TOR 2 – 2 NYI · TOR 18% → 32% +14TOR 18% → 32%+14 pts
- P29:39Matthew Schaefer Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (29), Ondrej Palat (10)TOR 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 66% → 82% +16NYI 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P216:44Emil Heineman Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (52), Tony DeAngelo (30)TOR 2 – 4 NYI · NYI 83% → 94% +11NYI 83% → 94%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 72%
- ML TOR +245 / NYI -305
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- NYI: Elo 60.0%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -260
- TOR +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.6 – 3.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −3 | TOR: Artur Akhtyamov (no track record yet) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +70 Elo | NYI 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.2% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%5th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 31st of 3214–25 | Road vs home | 21–1610th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 32 |
| 26th of 321474 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–45 | 41–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 5–25 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 36–12 |
| Overs–unders | 44–34 | 38–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–6 NYI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.