Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Jesper BoqvistGoals1
- A.J. GreerAssists1
- Jesper BoqvistPoints1
Senators- Fabian ZetterlundGoals2
- Jake SandersonAssists2
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:02Fabian Zetterlund Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P316:43Claude Giroux Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P314:17Jesper Boqvist Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (14), Eetu Luostarinen (19)1–3
- P33:03Artem Zub Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (40), Dylan Cozens (30)0–3
- P117:00Fabian Zetterlund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (10), Jordan Spence (23)0–2
- P16:49Drake Batherson Goal (32) Deflected, assists: Jake Sanderson (39), Brady Tkachuk (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:49Drake Batherson Goal (32) Deflected, assists: Jake Sanderson (39), Brady Tkachuk (37)FLA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 75% → 86% +11OTT 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P117:00Fabian Zetterlund Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (10), Jordan Spence (23)FLA 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 85% → 93% +8OTT 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P33:03Artem Zub Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (40), Dylan Cozens (30)FLA 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 96% → >99% +3OTT 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P314:17Jesper Boqvist Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (14), Eetu Luostarinen (19)FLA 1 – 3 OTT · FLA <1% → <1% +0FLA <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P316:43Claude Giroux Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 4 OTT · OTT >99% → >99% +0OTT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 77%
- ML FLA +310 / OTT -395
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.0 pts
- OTT: Elo 58.6%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- OTT -327
- FLA +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.4 – 4.1 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +61 Elo | OTT 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 67.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 54.3%4th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 87.9%32nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3216–23 | Road vs home | 21–1815th of 32 |
| 1st of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 17th of 321502 | Elo rating | 15318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–51 | 36–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 20–36 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 16–6 |
| Overs–unders | 45–33 | 42–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 8–2 OTT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.