Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Avery HayesGoals2
- Kevin HayesAssists2
- Avery HayesPoints2
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals2
- Jimmy SnuggerudAssists2
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:17Dylan Holloway Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (29), Logan Mailloux (8)5–7
- P312:20Avery Hayes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (29), Arturs Silovs (3)5–6
- P34:55Pavel Buchnevich Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (27), Jordan Binnington (2)4–6
- P34:11Dylan Holloway Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (28), Robert Thomas (39)4–5
- P215:49Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (21), Dylan Holloway (27)4–4
- P210:37Logan Mailloux Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (20), Jake Neighbours (20)4–3
- P24:51Oskar Sundqvist Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (7), Philip Broberg (27)4–2
- P22:58Elmer Soderblom Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (18), Anthony Mantha (31)4–1
- P118:44Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (38)3–1
- P117:23Anthony Mantha Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (4)3–0
- P116:40Avery Hayes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P110:14Rutger McGroarty Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:14Rutger McGroarty Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (3)PIT 1 – 0 STL · PIT 36% → 51% +16PIT 36% → 51%+16 pts
- P116:40Avery Hayes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 2 – 0 STL · PIT 53% → 70% +16PIT 53% → 70%+16 pts
- P210:37Logan Mailloux Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (20), Jake Neighbours (20)PIT 4 – 3 STL · STL 22% → 41% +18STL 22% → 41%+18 pts
- P215:49Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (21), Dylan Holloway (27)PIT 4 – 4 STL · STL 38% → 60% +23STL 38% → 60%+23 pts
- P34:11Dylan Holloway Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (28), Robert Thomas (39)PIT 4 – 5 STL · STL 58% → 82% +24STL 58% → 82%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- STL 66%
- ML PIT +180 / STL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.3 pts
- STL: Elo 47.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -192
- PIT +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −6 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +18 Elo | PIT 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 47.5%26th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%19th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 9th of 3221–18 | Road vs home | 19–2123rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 149519th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 47–34 | 45–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 7–23 |
| Underdog | 34–14 | 38–12 |
| Overs–unders | 47–34 | 37–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.