Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Nick FolignoGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Nick FolignoPoints2
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals1
- Jimmy SnuggerudAssists1
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:56Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P33:05Jake Neighbours Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: none3–5
- P216:41Theo Lindstein Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (19), Dalibor Dvorsky (9)3–4
- P24:31Pavel Buchnevich Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (26), Cam Fowler (25)3–3
- P24:04Otto Stenberg Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (14), Alexey Toropchenko (6)3–2
- P21:59Michael McCarron Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (10)3–1
- P119:13Danila Yurov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (23), Marcus Johansson (33)2–1
- P114:46Nick Foligno Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Yakov Trenin (17), Daemon Hunt (6)1–1
- P11:22Colton Parayko Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (37), Jimmy Snuggerud (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:13Danila Yurov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (23), Marcus Johansson (33)MIN 2 – 1 STL · MIN 40% → 57% +18MIN 40% → 57%+18 pts
- P21:59Michael McCarron Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (10)MIN 3 – 1 STL · MIN 58% → 75% +16MIN 58% → 75%+16 pts
- P24:04Otto Stenberg Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (14), Alexey Toropchenko (6)MIN 3 – 2 STL · STL 24% → 41% +17STL 24% → 41%+17 pts
- P24:31Pavel Buchnevich Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (26), Cam Fowler (25)MIN 3 – 3 STL · STL 41% → 59% +19STL 41% → 59%+19 pts
- P216:41Theo Lindstein Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Drouin (19), Dalibor Dvorsky (9)MIN 3 – 4 STL · STL 58% → 78% +21STL 58% → 78%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- STL 62%
- ML MIN +154 / STL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- STL: Elo 50.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -165
- MIN +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +7 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN 0 Elo | MIN 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 47.6%25th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–17 | Road vs home | 18–2126th of 32 |
| 24th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 32 |
| 8th of 321533 | Elo rating | 149020th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–40 | 44–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–34 | 6–23 |
| Underdog | 26–6 | 38–12 |
| Overs–unders | 44–36 | 36–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–5 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.