Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists3
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints3
Stars- Colin BlackwellGoals1
- Esa LindellAssists2
- Colin BlackwellPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:35Jason Robertson Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (25)4–5
- P34:28Mikko Rantanen Goal (22) Deflected, assists: Thomas Harley (29), Wyatt Johnston (40)4–4
- P219:49Ryan Hartman Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (16), Quinn Hughes (69)4–3
- P216:16Cameron Hughes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (11), Oskar Bäck (7)3–3
- P28:03Colin Blackwell Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (24)3–2
- P26:39Kirill Kaprizov Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (43), Mats Zuccarello (39)3–1
- P119:44Kirill Kaprizov Goal (44) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (42), Mats Zuccarello (38)2–1
- P113:02Quinn Hughes Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (37)1–1
- P14:26Wyatt Johnston Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (15), Mikko Rantanen (54)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:44Kirill Kaprizov Goal (44) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (42), Mats Zuccarello (38)MIN 2 – 1 DAL · MIN 48% → 65% +17MIN 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P216:16Cameron Hughes Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (11), Oskar Bäck (7)MIN 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 29% → 52% +22DAL 29% → 52%+22 pts
- P219:49Ryan Hartman Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (16), Quinn Hughes (69)MIN 4 – 3 DAL · MIN 48% → 72% +24MIN 48% → 72%+24 pts
- P34:28Mikko Rantanen Goal (22) Deflected, assists: Thomas Harley (29), Wyatt Johnston (40)MIN 4 – 4 DAL · DAL 25% → 51% +27DAL 25% → 51%+27 pts
- P310:35Jason Robertson Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (25)MIN 4 – 5 DAL · DAL 51% → 83% +32DAL 51% → 83%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML MIN +102 / DAL -122
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 56.8%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -111
- MIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +48 Elo | DAL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.72nd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%5th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3223–15 | Road vs home | 24–156th of 32 |
| 28th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 32 |
| 6th of 321538 | Elo rating | 15525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–39 | 31–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–33 | 17–44 |
| Underdog | 25–6 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 43–35 | 38–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–6 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.