Seattle Kraken at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Adam LarssonGoals1
- Jaden SchwartzAssists1
- Adam LarssonPoints1
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists2
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:17Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P36:49Marcus Johansson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (41), Joel Eriksson Ek (32)2–4
- P212:46Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (20), Jared Spurgeon (15)2–3
- P20:38Marcus Foligno Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (16)2–2
- P113:10Adam Larsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (31)2–1
- P111:57Matt Boldy Goal (42) Tip-In, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (31), Marcus Johansson (32)1–1
- P110:23Brandon Montour Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (25), Jaden Schwartz (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:23Brandon Montour Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (25), Jaden Schwartz (13)SEA 1 – 0 MIN · SEA 32% → 47% +15SEA 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P111:57Matt Boldy Goal (42) Tip-In, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (31), Marcus Johansson (32)SEA 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 52% → 68% +16MIN 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P113:10Adam Larsson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (31)SEA 2 – 1 MIN · SEA 32% → 48% +16SEA 32% → 48%+16 pts
- P20:38Marcus Foligno Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (16)SEA 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 49% → 66% +17MIN 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P212:46Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (20), Jared Spurgeon (15)SEA 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 64% → 81% +18MIN 64% → 81%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 70%
- ML SEA +220 / MIN -270
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 70.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -234
- SEA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +147 Elo | MIN 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.95th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.0%1st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 24th of 3215–23 | Road vs home | 21–1813th of 32 |
| 26th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 29th of 321452 | Elo rating | 15357th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 45–31 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 13–33 |
| Underdog | 40–24 | 25–6 |
| Overs–unders | 33–43 | 42–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–6 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.