Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals1
- Adam KlapkaAssists2
- Adam KlapkaPoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:39Wyatt Johnston Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (50), Miro Heiskanen (54)3–4
- P34:51Jason Robertson Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (24), Tyler Myers (10)3–3
- P31:16Wyatt Johnston Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (53)3–2
- P30:26Zayne Parekh Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (24), Matvei Gridin (12)3–1
- P218:52Yegor Sharangovich Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (12), Zach Whitecloud (12)2–1
- P212:38Joel Farabee Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Adam Klapka (11), Olli Maatta (11)1–1
- P24:30Justin Hryckowian Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (28), Nils Lundkvist (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:52Yegor Sharangovich Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (12), Zach Whitecloud (12)CGY 2 – 1 DAL · CGY 38% → 63% +24CGY 38% → 63%+24 pts
- P30:26Zayne Parekh Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (24), Matvei Gridin (12)CGY 3 – 1 DAL · CGY 64% → 84% +20CGY 64% → 84%+20 pts
- P31:16Wyatt Johnston Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (53)CGY 3 – 2 DAL · DAL 15% → 35% +20DAL 15% → 35%+20 pts
- P34:51Jason Robertson Goal (41) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (24), Tyler Myers (10)CGY 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 32% → 60% +28DAL 32% → 60%+28 pts
- OT3:39Wyatt Johnston Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (50), Miro Heiskanen (54)CGY 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 53% → >99% +46DAL 53% → >99%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 69%
- ML CGY +210 / DAL -258
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 67.8%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -223
- CGY +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.2 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | 0 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +129 Elo | DAL 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 71.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.72nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%5th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3211–27 | Road vs home | 23–156th of 32 |
| 31st of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 32 |
| 28th of 321456 | Elo rating | 15504th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–34 | 31–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 17–43 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 40–36 | 37–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–5 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.