Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Michael McCarronGoals1
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Michael McCarronPoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:54Michael McCarron Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (14)1–2
- P26:34Matthew Wood Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (23), Nick Perbix (9)0–2
- P115:01Steven Stamkos Goal (40) Wrap-around, assists: Luke Evangelista (42), Ryan O'Reilly (48)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:01Steven Stamkos Goal (40) Wrap-around, assists: Luke Evangelista (42), Ryan O'Reilly (48)MIN 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 50% → 66% +16NSH 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P26:34Matthew Wood Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (23), Nick Perbix (9)MIN 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 69% → 84% +15NSH 69% → 84%+15 pts
- P36:54Michael McCarron Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (14)MIN 1 – 2 NSH · MIN 6% → 22% +16MIN 6% → 22%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 50%
- ML MIN -110 / NSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 47.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NSH -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +4 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +19 Elo | MIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3223–16 | Road vs home | 19–1819th of 32 |
| 26th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150020th of 32 |
| 8th of 321536 | Elo rating | 147625th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–39 | 44–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–33 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 26–6 | 37–20 |
| Overs–unders | 44–35 | 36–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–4 NSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.