St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Cam FowlerGoals1
- Jonatan BerggrenAssists2
- Jonatan BerggrenPoints2
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals2
- Anton FrondellAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:35Ilya Mikheyev Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (25), Anton Frondell (6)5–3
- P37:04Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (19), Jonatan Berggren (14)5–2
- P217:20Cam Fowler Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (13), Tyler Tucker (13)4–2
- P212:06Jordan Kyrou Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Mailloux (7), Pavel Buchnevich (28)3–2
- P24:10Alexey Toropchenko Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (15), Oskar Sundqvist (12)2–2
- P23:04Ilya Mikheyev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sacha Boisvert (1)1–2
- P115:07Ryan Greene Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (43)1–1
- P19:26Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Tucker (12), Dylan Holloway (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:26Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Tucker (12), Dylan Holloway (26)STL 1 – 0 CHI · STL 57% → 71% +15STL 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P115:07Ryan Greene Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (43)STL 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 28% → 44% +16CHI 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P23:04Ilya Mikheyev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sacha Boisvert (1)STL 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 44% → 63% +18CHI 44% → 63%+18 pts
- P24:10Alexey Toropchenko Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (15), Oskar Sundqvist (12)STL 2 – 2 CHI · STL 37% → 56% +19STL 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P212:06Jordan Kyrou Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Mailloux (7), Pavel Buchnevich (28)STL 3 – 2 CHI · STL 55% → 75% +20STL 55% → 75%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML STL -148 / CHI +124
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- STL: Elo 60.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -134
- CHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −16 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +72 Elo | STL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.731st of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 44.9%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 26th of 3215–24 | Road vs home | 13–2530th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 19th of 321487 | Elo rating | 140431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–35 | 49–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–23 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 38–12 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 35–43 | 34–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–3 CHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.