Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Garnet HathawayGoals1
- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints2
PenguinsScoring summary
- P317:55Luke Glendening Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (1), Garnet Hathaway (1)3–0
- P217:43Garnet Hathaway Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (1)2–0
- P213:39Porter Martone Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (2), Christian Dvorak (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:39Porter Martone Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (2), Christian Dvorak (2)PHI 1 – 0 PIT · PHI 44% → 66% +22PHI 44% → 66%+22 pts
- P217:43Garnet Hathaway Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (1)PHI 2 – 0 PIT · PHI 68% → 86% +18PHI 68% → 86%+18 pts
- P317:55Luke Glendening Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (1), Garnet Hathaway (1)PHI 3 – 0 PIT · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 58%
- ML PHI +130 / PIT -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −2 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +26 Elo | PIT 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 7th of 3223–18 | Road vs home | 19–2125th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 32 |
| 16th of 321504 | Elo rating | 150515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 53–30 | 47–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 13–21 |
| Underdog | 43–16 | 34–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–41 | 48–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–6 PIT in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.