Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Cole PerfettiAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints3
Red Wings- Emmitt FinnieGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists1
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:56Emmitt Finnie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (1), Alex DeBrincat (1)3–2
- P216:52Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Andrew Copp (1), Moritz Seider (1)3–1
- P25:41Kyle Connor Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (2), Cole Perfetti (3)3–0
- P114:36Kyle Connor Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (2), Cole Perfetti (2)2–0
- P113:04Cole Perfetti Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Kyle Connor (2), Josh Morrissey (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:04Cole Perfetti Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Kyle Connor (2), Josh Morrissey (1)WPG 1 – 0 DET · WPG 52% → 67% +16WPG 52% → 67%+16 pts
- P114:36Kyle Connor Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (2), Cole Perfetti (2)WPG 2 – 0 DET · WPG 68% → 81% +13WPG 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P25:41Kyle Connor Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (2), Cole Perfetti (3)WPG 3 – 0 DET · WPG 84% → 93% +9WPG 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P216:52Viktor Arvidsson Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Andrew Copp (1), Moritz Seider (1)WPG 3 – 1 DET · DET 4% → 11% +8DET 4% → 11%+8 pts
- P34:56Emmitt Finnie Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (1), Alex DeBrincat (1)WPG 3 – 2 DET · DET 7% → 23% +16DET 7% → 23%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML WPG -118 / DET -102
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 44.2%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- WPG -107
- DET +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −2 | WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +41 Elo | DET 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.7% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%17th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 27th of 3216–25 | Road vs home | 21–2017th of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 32 |
| 19th of 321488 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  WPG |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–45 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–34 | 9–30 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 32–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–38 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–3 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.