New York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists1
- Eeli TolvanenPoints1
Red WingsScoring summary
- P318:44Eeli Tolvanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (1), Adam Fox (3)2–0
- P15:12Sean Durzi Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (1), Will Cuylle (1)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:12Sean Durzi Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (1), Will Cuylle (1)NYR 1 – 0 DET · NYR 47% → 62% +15NYR 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P318:44Eeli Tolvanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (1), Adam Fox (3)NYR 2 – 0 DET · NYR >99% → >99% +1NYR >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML NYR +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- DET: Elo 57.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.7 – 2.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −4 | NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +51 Elo | DET 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.5%17th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 17th of 3219–21 | Road vs home | 21–2017th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321486 | Elo rating | 148821st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NYR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–40 | 41–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 9–30 |
| Underdog | 33–17 | 32–11 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 8–1 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.