New York Rangers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Matthew RobertsonGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists1
- Matthew RobertsonPoints1
Panthers- Cole ReinhardtGoals2
- Vinnie HinostrozaAssists1
- Cole ReinhardtPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:10Cole Reinhardt Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (5), Donovan Sebrango (7)2–3
- P217:20Gabe Perreault Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (44), Alexis Lafrenière (32)2–2
- P115:19Matthew Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Laba (15)1–2
- P111:31Mackie Samoskevich Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P19:35Cole Reinhardt Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tobias Bjornfot (2), Vinnie Hinostroza (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:35Cole Reinhardt Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tobias Bjornfot (2), Vinnie Hinostroza (12)NYR 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 42% → 58% +16FLA 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P111:31Mackie Samoskevich Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYR 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 59% → 73% +15FLA 59% → 73%+15 pts
- P115:19Matthew Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Laba (15)NYR 1 – 2 FLA · NYR 25% → 40% +15NYR 25% → 40%+15 pts
- P217:20Gabe Perreault Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Adam Fox (44), Alexis Lafrenière (32)NYR 2 – 2 FLA · NYR 32% → 55% +23NYR 32% → 55%+23 pts
- P318:10Cole Reinhardt Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (5), Donovan Sebrango (7)NYR 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 49% → 98% +49FLA 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 58%
- ML NYR -155 / FLA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 40.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -140
- FLA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −9 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +65 Elo | FLA 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 51.2%10th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.3%28th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 32 |
| 17th of 3218–20 | Road vs home | 21–1711th of 32 |
| 5th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 150317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–39 | 28–52 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 9–40 |
| Underdog | 32–17 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 37–43 | 46–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 6–8 FLA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.
- Mar 29FLA 1 @ NYR 3Picked NYR 62%Hit
- Jan 2NYR 5 @ FLA 1Picked FLA 55%Miss
- Apr 14NYR 5 @ FLA 3Picked FLA 61%Miss
- Dec 30NYR 3 @ FLA 5Picked FLA 65%Hit
- Oct 24FLA 3 @ NYR 1Picked NYR 58%Miss
- Jun 1NYR 1 @ FLA 2PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- May 30FLA 3 @ NYR 2PlayoffsPicked NYR 55%Miss
- May 28NYR 2 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit