Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Tomas NosekGoals2
- Mackie SamoskevichAssists2
- Eetu LuostarinenPoints3
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- John TavaresAssists1
- William NylanderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:07Tomas Nosek Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Noah Gregor (4)6–2
- P315:56A.J. Greer Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (21), Mackie Samoskevich (19)5–2
- P34:13Mackie Samoskevich Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (15), Eetu Luostarinen (20)4–2
- P213:16William Nylander Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: none3–2
- P210:55William Nylander Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (40), Easton Cowan (17)3–1
- P21:32Tomas Nosek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marek Alscher (1)3–0
- P15:32Cole Reinhardt Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Donovan Sebrango (6), Vinnie Hinostroza (11)2–0
- P10:23Eetu Luostarinen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:23Eetu Luostarinen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (18)FLA 1 – 0 TOR · FLA 41% → 55% +15FLA 41% → 55%+15 pts
- P15:32Cole Reinhardt Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Donovan Sebrango (6), Vinnie Hinostroza (11)FLA 2 – 0 TOR · FLA 56% → 71% +14FLA 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P21:32Tomas Nosek Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marek Alscher (1)FLA 3 – 0 TOR · FLA 76% → 88% +12FLA 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P213:16William Nylander Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: noneFLA 3 – 2 TOR · TOR 17% → 35% +17TOR 17% → 35%+17 pts
- P34:13Mackie Samoskevich Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (15), Eetu Luostarinen (20)FLA 4 – 2 TOR · FLA 72% → 90% +18FLA 72% → 90%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML FLA +136 / TOR -162
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -146
- FLA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −11 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +9 Elo | TOR 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 44.9%32nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%15th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 25th of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 18–2124th of 32 |
| 1st of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 32 |
| 17th of 321498 | Elo rating | 147126th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–52 | 33–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–40 | 7–25 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 26–21 |
| Overs–unders | 45–34 | 45–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 10–8 TOR in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.
- Feb 26TOR 1 @ FLA 5Picked FLA 59%Hit
- Jan 6FLA 1 @ TOR 4Picked FLA 55%Miss
- Dec 2TOR 4 @ FLA 1Picked FLA 60%Miss
- May 18FLA 6 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 57%Hit
- May 16TOR 2 @ FLA 0PlayoffsPicked FLA 65%Miss
- May 14FLA 6 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- May 11TOR 0 @ FLA 2PlayoffsPicked FLA 64%Hit
- May 9TOR 4 @ FLA 5PlayoffsPicked FLA 67%Hit