New York Rangers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals2
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:01Jason Robertson Goal (44) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (26), Mavrik Bourque (20)0–2
- P312:49Jason Robertson Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (25), Wyatt Johnston (41)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P312:49Jason Robertson Goal (43) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (25), Wyatt Johnston (41)NYR 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 88% +34DAL 54% → 88%+34 pts
- P319:01Jason Robertson Goal (44) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (26), Mavrik Bourque (20)NYR 0 – 2 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML NYR +150 / DAL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -161
- NYR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −1 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +104 Elo | DAL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 66.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.82nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%7th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3218–19 | Road vs home | 25–156th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 32 |
| 24th of 321479 | Elo rating | 15545th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–38 | 31–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 17–45 |
| Underdog | 32–16 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 37–42 | 39–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–2 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.