New York Rangers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers
Bruins- Fraser MintenGoals1
- Fraser MintenAssists1
- Fraser MintenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:29Mark Kastelic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (1), Marat Khusnutdinov (1)0–3
- P317:06JJ Peterka Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (1), Hampus Lindholm (1)0–2
- P316:14Fraser Minten Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P316:14Fraser Minten Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (1)NYR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 50% → 93% +43BOS 50% → 93%+43 pts
- P317:06JJ Peterka Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (1), Hampus Lindholm (1)NYR 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 95% → >99% +5BOS 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P317:29Mark Kastelic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (1), Marat Khusnutdinov (1)NYR 0 – 3 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML NYR -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- NYR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 2.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +51 Elo | BOS 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025-26) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 47.6%26th of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 17th of 3219–21 | Road vs home | 29–121st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15033rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Elo rating | 150314th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  NYR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–40 | 57–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 33–17 | 45–14 |
| Overs–unders | 37–45 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 7–2 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.