Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Elias LindholmGoals1
- Hampus LindholmAssists1
- Elias LindholmPoints1
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Rasmus DahlinPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT9:14David Pastrnak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (1)2–1
- P29:24Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P13:35Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (1), Tage Thompson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:35Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (1), Tage Thompson (3)BOS 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 61% → 74% +13BUF 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P29:24Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 1 – 1 BUF · BOS 24% → 42% +18BOS 24% → 42%+18 pts
- OT9:14David Pastrnak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (1)BOS 2 – 1 BUF · BOS 47% → 100% +53BOS 47% → 100%+53 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 61%
- ML BOS +145 / BUF -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- BUF: Elo 62.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- BUF -156
- BOS +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.4 – 3.1 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +91 Elo | BUF 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 26th of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Elo rating | 15614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 56–30 | 50–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 44–13 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 45–41 | 42–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–8 BUF in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.
- Apr 26BUF 6 @ BOS 1PlayoffsPicked BOS 53%Miss
- Apr 23BUF 3 @ BOS 1PlayoffsPicked BOS 51%Miss
- Apr 21BOS 4 @ BUF 2PlayoffsPicked BUF 60%Miss
- Apr 19BOS 3 @ BUF 4PlayoffsPicked BUF 60%Hit
- Mar 25BOS 4 @ BUF 3Picked BUF 64%Miss
- Dec 27BOS 1 @ BUF 4Picked BUF 55%Hit
- Oct 30BUF 3 @ BOS 4Picked BUF 56%Miss
- Oct 11BUF 1 @ BOS 3Picked BOS 50%Hit