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Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast

FinalBUF leads series 3-1

Away

Sabres

50-23-9

6–1

at

Home

Bruins

45-27-10

BUF 47%BOS 53%

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TD Garden · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, MSGB, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored BUF favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3BOS50%BUF

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Sabres
Bruins

Scoring summary

  • P319:20Sean Kuraly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (1), Andrew Peeke (1)6–1
  • P36:32Alex Tuch Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (2), Peyton Krebs (3)6–0
  • P35:08Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Greenway (1), Tyson Kozak (1)5–0
  • P114:24Bowen Byram Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (4), Jack Quinn (3)4–0
  • P19:15Zach Benson Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Josh Doan (1)3–0
  • P17:10Josh Doan Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McLeod (1), Bowen Byram (2)2–0
  • P14:17Peyton Krebs Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (3)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:17Peyton Krebs Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (3)BUF 1 – 0 BOS · BUF 47% → 62% +15
  2. P17:10Josh Doan Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McLeod (1), Bowen Byram (2)BUF 2 – 0 BOS · BUF 63% → 76% +13
  3. P19:15Zach Benson Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Josh Doan (1)BUF 3 – 0 BOS · BUF 77% → 87% +10
  4. P114:24Bowen Byram Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (4), Jack Quinn (3)BUF 4 – 0 BOS · BUF 88% → 95% +6
  5. P35:08Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Greenway (1), Tyson Kozak (1)BUF 5 – 0 BOS · BUF >99% → >99% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Bruins 53%

Toss-upMiss
BUF 47%BOS 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
BOS 53%
ML BUF +102 / BOS -122
Pre-line forecast
BOS 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS 49%
Ratings vs. market
−3.4 pts
BOS: Elo 49.2%, market 52.6%
Fair odds
BOS -111
BUF +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BUF 2.7 – 2.8 BOS
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBUFBOSWhy
Team rating15561511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+1+5BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsBUF +5 EloBUF 50.8%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 51.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 51.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 52.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins compared, with each team's league rank
BUFStatBOS
5th of 323.5Goals scored3.311th of 32
7th of 322.9Goals allowed3.013th of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin+0.311th of 32
19th of 3249.2%Shot share47.6%26th of 32
3rd of 3290.7%Save percentage90.3%7th of 32
8th of 326–4Last 105–516th of 32
2nd of 3224–17Road vs home29–121st of 32
13th of 321502Opponent Elo15044th of 32
5th of 321556Elo rating151113th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

SabresBruins
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBUFBOS
Puck line49–3656–29
Last 106–47–3
Favorite19–2512–16
Underdog30–1144–13
Overs–unders41–4444–41
Overs–unders, last 104–62–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BUF 7–7 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.