Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Morgan GeekieAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:52David Pastrnak Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pavel Zacha (1), Morgan Geekie (2)3–4
- P318:48Alex Tuch Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (1), Owen Power (1)2–4
- P316:36Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (1)2–3
- P315:44Tage Thompson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (1)2–2
- P312:02Tage Thompson Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Peyton Krebs (1)2–1
- P31:08Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (1), David Pastrnak (2)2–0
- P110:52Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (1), Nikita Zadorov (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:52Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (1), Nikita Zadorov (1)BOS 1 – 0 BUF · BOS 41% → 57% +16BOS 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P31:08Elias Lindholm Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (1), David Pastrnak (2)BOS 2 – 0 BUF · BOS 69% → 88% +18BOS 69% → 88%+18 pts
- P312:02Tage Thompson Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Peyton Krebs (1)BOS 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 3% → 18% +15BUF 3% → 18%+15 pts
- P315:44Tage Thompson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (1)BOS 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 10% → 53% +43BUF 10% → 53%+43 pts
- P316:36Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (1)BOS 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 52% → 94% +42BUF 52% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 60%
- ML BOS +140 / BUF -166
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 60.5%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -150
- BOS +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +74 Elo | BUF 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.97th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 26th of 3216–24 | Road vs home | 26–153rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 13th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15554th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 54–28 | 48–34 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 42–13 | 29–11 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 40–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–5 BUF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.