Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Rasmus DahlinAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan GreeneGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Ryan GreenePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:35Ryan McLeod Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (29), Owen Power (19)5–1
- P311:13Tage Thompson Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (55), Jason Zucker (21)4–1
- P35:38Alex Tuch Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (54), Logan Stanley (17)3–1
- P213:00Tage Thompson Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (33)2–1
- P119:02Josh Norris Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (27)1–1
- P13:58Ryan Greene Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:58Ryan Greene Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (18)BUF 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 37% → 52% +15CHI 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P119:02Josh Norris Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (27)BUF 1 – 1 CHI · BUF 44% → 61% +17BUF 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P213:00Tage Thompson Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (33)BUF 2 – 1 CHI · BUF 59% → 78% +19BUF 59% → 78%+19 pts
- P35:38Alex Tuch Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (54), Logan Stanley (17)BUF 3 – 1 CHI · BUF 82% → 95% +13BUF 82% → 95%+13 pts
- P311:13Tage Thompson Goal (40) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (55), Jason Zucker (21)BUF 4 – 1 CHI · BUF 98% → >99% +2BUF 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 64%
- ML BUF -198 / CHI +164
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- BUF: Elo 66.3%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.6 – 2.9 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +117 Elo | BUF 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 6th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 45.0%31st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%16th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 4th of 3223–17 | Road vs home | 13–2631st of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 5th of 321554 | Elo rating | 140131st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 46–34 | 49–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 28–11 | 49–28 |
| Overs–unders | 39–41 | 35–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–0 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.