New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Bruins- Mark KastelicGoals2
- Sean KuralyAssists2
- Mark KastelicPoints2
Scoring summary
- P119:52Viktor Arvidsson Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (35), Hampus Lindholm (21)0–4
- P117:42Mark Kastelic Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (16), Mason Lohrei (19)0–3
- P16:14Mark Kastelic Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (16), Sean Kuraly (15)0–2
- P10:53Morgan Geekie Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (71), Fraser Minten (18)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:53Morgan Geekie Goal (39) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (71), Fraser Minten (18)NJ 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 58% → 72% +14BOS 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P16:14Mark Kastelic Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (16), Sean Kuraly (15)NJ 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 72% → 83% +11BOS 72% → 83%+11 pts
- P117:42Mark Kastelic Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (16), Mason Lohrei (19)NJ 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 85% → 93% +8BOS 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P119:52Viktor Arvidsson Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (35), Hampus Lindholm (21)NJ 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 93% → 97% +4BOS 93% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML NJ +130 / BOS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- NJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +5 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +53 Elo | BOS 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 47.6%25th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%9th of 32 |
| 17th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–19 | Road vs home | 28–122nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 32 |
| 20th of 321491 | Elo rating | 150814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–49 | 53–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–37 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 42–13 |
| Overs–unders | 39–42 | 43–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–4 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.