Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Artem ZubAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints1
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:18Nico Hischier Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (50), Dougie Hamilton (27)3–4
- P312:28Dawson Mercer Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (38)3–3
- P214:14Fabian Zetterlund Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P210:25Shane Pinto Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (33), Drake Batherson (38)2–2
- P27:42Michael Amadio Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Artem Zub (25), Nick Cousins (14)1–2
- P114:51Connor Brown Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (49)0–2
- P15:12Nico Hischier Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (22), Timo Meier (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:12Nico Hischier Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (22), Timo Meier (20)OTT 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 53% → 68% +15NJ 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P210:25Shane Pinto Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (33), Drake Batherson (38)OTT 2 – 2 NJ · OTT 28% → 48% +20OTT 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P214:14Fabian Zetterlund Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 2 NJ · OTT 48% → 69% +21OTT 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P312:28Dawson Mercer Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (38)OTT 3 – 3 NJ · NJ 16% → 51% +35NJ 16% → 51%+35 pts
- OT3:18Nico Hischier Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Jack Hughes (50), Dougie Hamilton (27)OTT 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 51% → 99% +48NJ 51% → 99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML OTT +105 / NJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 44.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- OTT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.2 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +36 Elo | OTT 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.1% | Shot share | 52.1%6th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 10th of 3221–19 | Road vs home | 20–2020th of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 6th of 321540 | Elo rating | 148821st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–42 | 32–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 11–36 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 42–38 | 38–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–4 NJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.