New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals2
- Dougie HamiltonAssists2
- Jesper BrattPoints3
Red Wings- Emmitt FinnieGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists2
- Emmitt FinniePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Dawson Mercer Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (37), Dougie Hamilton (26)5–3
- P316:26Jesper Bratt Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (48), Connor Brown (25)4–3
- P311:18Cody Glass Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (19), Jonas Siegenthaler (16)3–3
- P37:00Emmitt Finnie Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (51), Dylan Larkin (33)2–3
- P215:16Jesper Bratt Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (8), Dennis Cholowski (2)2–2
- P211:59David Perron Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (16)1–2
- P110:40Jack Hughes Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (49), Dougie Hamilton (25)1–1
- P19:41Justin Faulk Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (32), Emmitt Finnie (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:59David Perron Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (16)NJ 1 – 2 DET · DET 54% → 73% +20DET 54% → 73%+20 pts
- P215:16Jesper Bratt Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (8), Dennis Cholowski (2)NJ 2 – 2 DET · NJ 26% → 47% +21NJ 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P37:00Emmitt Finnie Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (51), Dylan Larkin (33)NJ 2 – 3 DET · DET 52% → 80% +28DET 52% → 80%+28 pts
- P311:18Cody Glass Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (19), Jonas Siegenthaler (16)NJ 3 – 3 DET · NJ 16% → 48% +32NJ 16% → 48%+32 pts
- P316:26Jesper Bratt Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (48), Connor Brown (25)NJ 4 – 3 DET · NJ 49% → 93% +44NJ 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML NJ +114 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- DET: Elo 56.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- NJ +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +47 Elo | DET 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 12th of 3220–19 | Road vs home | 21–1917th of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Elo rating | 149518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–48 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–36 | 9–28 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 37–42 | 39–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.