Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Justin HryckowianGoals1
- Justin HryckowianAssists1
- Esa LindellPoints2
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists2
- Zach BensonPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Wyatt Johnston Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Matt Duchene Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Jack Quinn Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Snap Shot3–2
- SO0:00Josh Norris Goal Snap Shot3–2
- P216:00Justin Hryckowian Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P211:09Alex Tuch Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (8), Owen Power (21)2–3
- P24:24Esa Lindell Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (21), Justin Hryckowian (16)2–2
- P23:32Zach Benson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (4)1–2
- P112:48Josh Norris Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (30), Owen Power (20)1–1
- P12:19Mavrik Bourque Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (26), Ilya Lyubushkin (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:48Josh Norris Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (30), Owen Power (20)DAL 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 28% → 44% +15BUF 28% → 44%+15 pts
- P23:32Zach Benson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Tyson Kozak (4)DAL 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 44% → 63% +18BUF 44% → 63%+18 pts
- P24:24Esa Lindell Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (21), Justin Hryckowian (16)DAL 2 – 2 BUF · DAL 37% → 56% +19DAL 37% → 56%+19 pts
- P211:09Alex Tuch Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (8), Owen Power (21)DAL 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 45% → 66% +21BUF 45% → 66%+21 pts
- P216:00Justin Hryckowian Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 3 – 3 BUF · DAL 32% → 55% +22DAL 32% → 55%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 57%
- ML DAL -148 / BUF +124
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 45.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -134
- BUF +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.5 – 3.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +34 Elo | BUF 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.95th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 6th of 3223–17 | Road vs home | 26–143rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 4th of 321558 | Elo rating | 15585th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–49 | 47–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–46 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 14–3 | 28–11 |
| Overs–unders | 40–41 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.